On paper, Tejay van Garderen (BMC) sets out from Maurepas this Sunday as one of the outstanding favourites for final overall victory at Paris-Nice, but the Race to the Sun rarely plays out according to a preordained script.
Twelve months ago, van Garderen’s race was ended prematurely by a bout of illness that forced him to abandon on the second day, but even without such misfortune, BMC directeur sportif Yvon Ledanois warns that Paris-Nice can never be reduced to its set-piece stages.
The summit finish on the Col de la Croix de Chaubouret on stage 4 is expected to be pivotal and the Col d’Éze time trial – where, surprisingly, van Garderen has never particularly excelled – provides the grand finale on the Riviera, but this race has a penchant for unexpected plot twists.
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“Paris-Nice is not just the last stage,” Ledanois told Cyclingnews. “It’s always dangerous, Paris-Nice. You can expect a stage for the sprinters and then it’s a surprise and very hard, so you never know. For sure, the Croix de Chaubouret, the Col d’Éze and the prologue are a selection more or less for the top five on GC, but you have to be careful everywhere. Every time, the first stages are dangerous with the wind. We have eight days and every one of those days is dangerous.”
Van Garderen arrives at Paris-Nice after taking second place at the Tour of Oman for the second successive season, but while there is now a familiar rhythm to his early-season, one can never step into the same river twice. Second place behind Chris Froome in 2014 was viewed in wholly positive terms, whereas van Garderen appeared to harbour some regrets about missing out on victory to Rafael Valls (Lampre-Merida) last month.
There are differences, too, in van Garderen’s mind-set this time around. Although he began to supersede Cadel Evans in the BMC’s hierarchy when he finished in fifth place at the 2012 Tour de France, he was only formally handed the keys to the kingdom at the beginning of last year. After recovering from a mixed build up to record another fifth-place finish in Paris, Ledanois believes van Garderen has grown into the leadership role and its associated pressures.
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